From time to time I get some very interesting confessions. Here is a very recent one, along with a solution.
"Hey Joe! I had been looking at a profitable trade setup all day. I studied indicator after indicator looking for confirmation, even though I know many are correlated and redundant. But I just kept on searching. I thought, ’Maybe I missed something.’ My account is now so small that I just wanted to be sure that this was the right trade. My thought was that I must take into consideration anything and everything that could cause this trade to fail. I can’t afford to lose any more money. What should I do?"
Well, my friend, you need to be able to make a decision, but you can’t do it if you are trading undercapitalized and making your trading decisions out of fear and uncertainty.
You are suffering from too much analysis. You are looking at so many things, you no longer can see straight. If you keep on over-analyzing your trades, it may develop into a deep-seated psychological problem.
Carefully analyzing the possible consequences of your trading decisions is healthy, but it becomes unhealthy when it is overdone. When it comes to trading, it’s important to have a clearly defined trading plan. You want to be sure that any given trade is not going to wipe out your trading account. That is one of the reasons we want you to use a time stop in addition to a money stop. When you use both types of stops you are clearly defining the signs and signals that indicate your trading plan is not working, suggesting that you should close out the trade to protect your capital.
Trading, by its very nature, is uncertain. There is little that can be described as security for traders. Every trade is a new event, and every entry is an entirely new business. A trader does not have the luxury of living from his past accomplishments.
If you have an unquenchable thirst for certainty, then trading is not for you. Uncertainty in trading is co-equal with insecurity. If money represents security to you, you have a real problem as a trader. Losing money not only costs you your financial security, but also your emotional security.
You don’t have time to realize that prices have supported two ticks away from your entry about forty times in the past. You don’t have time to see that you are trading right into overhead selling. You don’t have time to notice that if prices break out of yesterday’s high, they will also probably take out a Ross hook. You don’t have time to see where prices are in relation to the trend line. You don’t have time to really grasp the overall trend, or the wave that is going counter trend. You don’t have time to really consider where you will place your stop. You don’t have time to read the market and to see what it might be telling you.
All of these things can be done ahead of time. If you do not do your homework, you will end up chasing markets in a desperate attempt to get into "the big move."
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